One spread pick per game. Locked at kickoff, never edited after.
Opponent-adjusted team ratings built from every game since 2024, weighted toward recent weeks, blending points scored with EPA per play and ratings implied by past closing lines. Adjustments for the starting quarterback (efficiency, accuracy and draft pedigree), new injuries to regular starters, rest, special teams play, and a small fade of teams whose recent turnover margin is unusually good.
The model projects each team's score. Its spread is the difference. The pick is whichever side of the market spread the model's number falls on.
Picks post Monday morning at the opening lines and are final from then on. The one exception: if quarterback or injury news before kickoff moves the model to the other side of the posted line, Sunday morning's check reposts that game at the current line. Results are graded within hours of each final.
Every game counts, graded as a win, loss or push against the market spread we posted. Overtime counts. Tracked from Week 5, 2026.
| Rk | Chg | Team | Record | Rating | Avg | Offense | Defense | QB |
|---|
Rating is how many points better than an average NFL team each team would be on a neutral field, from the same model that sets the picks: team stats, past betting lines, quarterback, special teams and turnover luck. Offense and defense are points scored and allowed per game compared with an average team, from team stats only, so they do not add up exactly to the rating. Rankings update Monday mornings.